Think Drk is in a bubble ?
- Thread starter Icebucket
- Start date
derk
Member
Good topic, considering how much we've been seeing this graph in the context of DRK these days. :wink:
Timescale, the immaturity of the market and the wider context are key factors to consider.
Check out this recent article from some crypto website:
http://www.usacryptocoins.com/thecr...is-this-the-end-of-the-first-darkcoin-bubble/
"It will probably take months for DarkCoin to reach an equilibrium level again. For example, it took Bitcoin about 6 months to stabilize after its third bubble peaked in late November 2013."
The author is making a mistake comparing the states of DRK and Bitcoin as if they were similar markets. I can only imagine that this is down to a lack of serious research or thought.
1. DRK is only a baby when it comes to crypto. A healthy, bouncing one but a baby nonetheless. The market is not at all mature when compared with Bitcoin. The market cap is a small fraction of Bitcoin's, and yet there is massive volume in comparison:
- DRK "market cap" = $40 million ; BTC market cap = $8,000 million. BTC market cap 200 x that of DRK.
- DRK average volume per day for past 6 weeks = 2,000 BTC ; BTC average volume per day over past 6 weeks = 11,500 BTC. BTC volume only 5.75 x that of DRK.
- Even if we consider BTC volume at the height of the last bubble, it was still only 36,000 BTC per day = 18 x that of DRK. When comparing these ratios with those of the market caps we can see what a massive amount of interest DRK is getting.
2. It is difficult to calculate with accuracy but IMO a young market like DRK, with huge volume, moves far quicker than a mature market like BTC. I would say 3 to 4 times quicker in this case, meaning that making day-to-day comparisons between the two is a mistake. With the development going on and in the context of the run up to the next BTC bubble, it is inconceivable that DRK will simply break off on its own tangent and take months to find an equilibrium. With all that's going on there just isn't time for the classic stock market bubble chart to play out. It is an unrealistic expectation.
3.Regarding the shape of the bubble, considering that DRK is a much more illiquid market compared with BTC when it comes to market cap, looking at BTC today and comparing the charts with DRK does not make much sense. Although it is by no means a perfect comparison, why not go back to the days when BTC was worth about the same as DRK in USD terms, and compare charts from this period? Looking at the Bitstamp charts from 2012 up to 2013 it is worth noting the way that the August 2012 bubble played out: a quick re-test of previous ATH followed by a higher low followed by more quick tests of the ATH. The shape is far more buoyant than the shape of the 2013-2014 BTC bubble, and I believe a closer comparison with DRK today.
In short, I do not believe that DRK is going to follow the stock market bubble chart!
Timescale, the immaturity of the market and the wider context are key factors to consider.
Check out this recent article from some crypto website:
http://www.usacryptocoins.com/thecr...is-this-the-end-of-the-first-darkcoin-bubble/
"It will probably take months for DarkCoin to reach an equilibrium level again. For example, it took Bitcoin about 6 months to stabilize after its third bubble peaked in late November 2013."
The author is making a mistake comparing the states of DRK and Bitcoin as if they were similar markets. I can only imagine that this is down to a lack of serious research or thought.
1. DRK is only a baby when it comes to crypto. A healthy, bouncing one but a baby nonetheless. The market is not at all mature when compared with Bitcoin. The market cap is a small fraction of Bitcoin's, and yet there is massive volume in comparison:
- DRK "market cap" = $40 million ; BTC market cap = $8,000 million. BTC market cap 200 x that of DRK.
- DRK average volume per day for past 6 weeks = 2,000 BTC ; BTC average volume per day over past 6 weeks = 11,500 BTC. BTC volume only 5.75 x that of DRK.
- Even if we consider BTC volume at the height of the last bubble, it was still only 36,000 BTC per day = 18 x that of DRK. When comparing these ratios with those of the market caps we can see what a massive amount of interest DRK is getting.
2. It is difficult to calculate with accuracy but IMO a young market like DRK, with huge volume, moves far quicker than a mature market like BTC. I would say 3 to 4 times quicker in this case, meaning that making day-to-day comparisons between the two is a mistake. With the development going on and in the context of the run up to the next BTC bubble, it is inconceivable that DRK will simply break off on its own tangent and take months to find an equilibrium. With all that's going on there just isn't time for the classic stock market bubble chart to play out. It is an unrealistic expectation.
3.Regarding the shape of the bubble, considering that DRK is a much more illiquid market compared with BTC when it comes to market cap, looking at BTC today and comparing the charts with DRK does not make much sense. Although it is by no means a perfect comparison, why not go back to the days when BTC was worth about the same as DRK in USD terms, and compare charts from this period? Looking at the Bitstamp charts from 2012 up to 2013 it is worth noting the way that the August 2012 bubble played out: a quick re-test of previous ATH followed by a higher low followed by more quick tests of the ATH. The shape is far more buoyant than the shape of the 2013-2014 BTC bubble, and I believe a closer comparison with DRK today.
In short, I do not believe that DRK is going to follow the stock market bubble chart!
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DrGil
New member
I've got some thoughts on all this...but I've recently been throwing them in a blog. I just created a new account on here under my Bitcoin alias, so I've got to post and get liked and whatever before I can post the link. Throw a few likes my way if you have any desire to read my blog. It's nothing ground-breaking. Just my thoughts on market reactions, different coins, yadda yadda. I'm nobody special.....just a fan of the Darkcoin.
Edit: I threw a little of my blog up here-- https://darkcointalk.org/threads/understanding-low-price.1687/#post-11099
Edit: I threw a little of my blog up here-- https://darkcointalk.org/threads/understanding-low-price.1687/#post-11099
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loads of wishful thinking here, read this: http://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurre...eral_discussion_about_cryptos_ones_who_think/
DrGonzo87
New member
I've watched darkcoin for a year or so now and it looks to have performed much better as a speculative commodity during that time than btc. I just wish I had bought DC rather than BTC in the first place, I could've gained money rather than losing it expecting btc to return a $1,000 by the end of 2014, lol.
We've heard this on every coin that has gained any acceptance. The fact is charts of any type can be skewed to apply. As long as development moves forward, the chart will continue to change. The fact is, nothing is as simple as that chart, but really that same chart repeated in larger or smaller cycles over a long period of time, unless the stock or coin dies. For some people, due to their investment timing, could actually be on the different location.
Think again :wink:
childrottena
New member
If you look at Darkcoin Price i think its good position, with recent rebrand to DASH, it pumped.. but it dint get pumped to a point that the price go rocket high where ppl start to enter n leave extremely. It is a fair reflection that people understad this coin now. Now the momentum is set to build a stronger foundation
CharlesWilliams
New member
Yes loads of wishful thinking is going on and the graph just have individualized it, but things aren't same for everyone. Everyone has own choice