Agree.
What could be the solution to this? Do you think, that it would be better, to hide MN votes, for some time, before deadline?
However two issues bothers me. (Please, correct me if I am wrong!)
- 1. Isn’t it the same with lowering the number of participants? You also get lower chance to optimal result.
Effect is even stronger with lower granulation: i.e. grains of sand in jar, instead beans.
What I mean is, how crucial is this problem? How close to the exact number, we have to be?
In many of those experiments people had something to gain by voting well. If you let people who have too less invested in dash vote you can get people voting randomy. Or worse, as
@demo keeps suggesting people joining and being paid just to make wrong decisions to help some other currencies. So the idea of putting a threashold I think is a good idea. What exactly should be the threashold is not clear and I think nobody really knows. 1000 dash looks good. Maybe 100 could also work, as well as 2000 or 3000. If we knew how many dash has each person we could draw a nice graph where as the threashold raises you see the number of masternodes decrease. And then you would see that there are some numbers after which you really cannot do it. If the threashold is at 10000 or 100000 maybe there would be only 5 or 10 people and the decision would end up like the usual old boys club.
On the other side we don't need so many people. All the experiments I did showed how the median tended to stabilise quite soon. When you have 100 people it's nearly enough. With 1000 people, all that have invested a significant amount (like now, to own a masternode you have basically invested the cost of an apartment) I would say the quality of the decision should be quite good. Honestly, I don't think if you are trying to judge the number of grains of sand in the jar, and you ask everybody in the World to bet, and you offer 1 milion to the person that voted nearest the actual number. I am not convinced that asking 7 billion people (everybody in the world) or 7 million people (one persone every 1000 randomly picked) will change the median that much (or at all). You will find someone who is nearer in the 7 billion case, but I don't think the median will actually change. Unfortunately you cannot just try to find who the best people in the 7 billion would be and only ask them.
- 2. With every MN "whale" on the one side of being wrong, you get (statistically) one in the opposite direction. So, as mentioned above, you just end up with the same result, as lowering the number of participants.
"Wisdom of the crowd" works fine with 50, 100 people (also depends on granulation of the substance in jar). We have 4000+ MN.
How many, and how rich “whales” should there be, to disturb the result relevantly?
good question. The more rich wales there are the less the result is disturbed. The few rich wales there are with a lot of masternodes the more it is disturbed. In other words: imagine you have 1000 simple masternode (1 owner) and 1 person owning 100 masternode by himself. He can really disturb the result as his judgment will move 10% of the votes. Instead imagine you have 900 simple masternodes, and 50 people owning 4 masternodes each, then the result will be fine. The whales will cancel each other.
Of course to study this very well it would be good if we could know how many people with multiple masternodes are there. And how many masternode they have. Then we could simulate it. I remember that when
@demo made a proposal on PIVX and he told us that it was going well until one person said "no!" and 400 votes were added against his proposal I the sold all my PIVX. This level of "whalery" does not work well with any form of collective decision making. Whoever is the owner of those 400 masternodes, owns de fact PIVX, which is basically his own private toy. Not interested.
(Love to see the outcome of your computer simulation on this.)
If I made such a simulation, how should I simulate the decision of the participants respect to how many votes they have?
It actually would be interesting to try different formula. I even suspect that even if the owners of multiple masternode were linearly more precise in their evaluation respect to how many MN they own, still the result would end up biased. But it also would depend on the kind of vote used. Right now with yes/abstain/no vote it is quite easy to get the "right" answer. The WotC is usually applied on unidimensional situation where you need to decide where to aim for. Which are harder problems. But the Dash community has already decided they are not interested in this kind of voting. So it is quite pointless to simulate it. At least for Dash.