Prediction Markets To Help Masternodes Operators Vote Optimally

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Bitedge

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The full, real version of this idea is here https://bitedge.com/blog/prediction-markets-for-dash-governance/

It's a bit long with a bit too much formating to post the whole thing here and if I did that when I want to change anything I would have to change it in 2 places. So this is the introduction, please see the post and let me know what you think.

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This post assumes knowledge of prediction markets and why they are so accurate and powerful. This post also assumes knowledge of the dash treasury system.

  1. Introduction
  2. Decision markets are perfect for the dash treasury
  3. The dash treasury is perfect for decision markets
  4. The markets
    • An if statement
    • An outcome measure
    • A timeframe
  5. The platform
    • A centralized account based website
    • Accountless trading
    • A decentralized platform
    • Integration into other service
    • Incentivize participation
  6. Help, don’t compel
  7. Challenges
    • Liquidity
    • technical
    • Legal
Introduction
The dash treasury system and decision markets are a perfect fit for each other. Decision markets can help masternode operators make optimal votes on whether or not to fund proposals. I suggest we run the following decision markets for every dash treasury proposal.

If [proposal name and id] is funded, what will the value of 1 dash be on [date 12 months after the proposal is funded]?

and

If [proposal name and id] is not funded, what will the value of 1 dash be on [date 12 months after that proposal would have been funded]?

If the 1st market trades at a higher price than the 2nd market it would be an indication that masternode operators should vote to fund the proposal, because it will result in a higher dash value.

Full version here https://bitedge.com/blog/prediction-markets-for-dash-governance/
 
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Hi! Could I get a TL;DR? Like an elevator pitch?

(I'm Netizen_Cookie on Reddit, btw -- you'll see I asked the same question there)
 
I think there is value in this concept, but not for the specific markets you defined. The value of Dash has so many factors going into it, that trying to attribute how much a particular budget proposal has increased or decreased the price of Dash is going to be impossible and would not yield meaningful results. However, other markets could be used to inform certain aspects of the proposal, especially on how likely the proposal owner is to deliver on certain promises.
For example,
"Will this Dash debit card be available for purchase to US customers by X date?"
"Will this Dash ATM be up and running at the specified location by X date?"

Except, resolving those kinds of markets is not something you can just use an API for to check prices. It might involve some kind of manual resolution. Or a decentralized one, like the Augur platform.
 
Those are great ideas for markets! It adds to the workload of running the service because each proposal would have to be individually considers but it would be worth it.

In the post I mention you could also have markets on node count and transaction volume.
 
I think there is value in this concept, but not for the specific markets you defined. The value of Dash has so many factors going into it , that trying to attribute how much a particular budget proposal has increased or decreased the price of Dash is going to be impossible and would not yield meaningful results.
 
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