Dash Price Discussion and Dash Shortterm/Longterm Price Trend Speculation

[qwizzie]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/13/fed...s-by-three-quarters-of-a-point-this-week.html

I wonder if the Fed indeed tomorrow announces to hike interest rates with 0.75 percentage points, instead of their earlier announced 0.50 percentage points (and other Central Banks around the world pretty much doing the same thing, with only the ECB being fashionably late to the hiking interest rates party to suppress rising inflation), whether that will cause Bitcoin price to crash under $20,000 tomorrow, due to institutional investors then deciding to sell off assets that contains a lot of risk to them.

Tomorrow should be an interesting day to monitor for both Bitcoin and Altcoins. ECB is planning to hike interest rates later this year for the Eurozone and to be out of negative interest rates (-0.50) end of this year. See : https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61749090
About f. time.

 

[qwizzie]

The market might tank for longer What do you guys recommend may be if it reaches
20k range or maybe even below that price range (15K to 20K).

Personally i think the bottom is not yet in for Bitcoin price (it already reached $20,071 today, without showing a very clear sign of capitulation) and i expect some price volatility for Bitcoin and Altcoins prices coming days, due to the Feds hiking of interest rates policy (see : https://theconversation.com/5-thing...te-increase-and-how-it-will-affect-you-185008) and possibly the ECB doing the same (see : https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/eur...ute-meeting-to-look-at-market-conditions.html)

So yes, i think the whole crypto market may tank a bit longer.

My recommendation is to avoid panic buys or panic sells.
And never invest more then you can afford to lose.

Remember that crypto is cyclic of nature, so as one cycle ends a new cycle begins.
The tricky part is trying to get a sense of when those cycles end or start.

 

[xkcd]

We've just had an interesting weekend! Happy Juneteenth Americans! The rest of the world just shakes their heads at you guys these days.

The long weekend got off to a good start with an ETF dropping 24k BTC on an illiquid market sitting on $20k Support for Bitcoin.

Upon breaking support, the carnage was predictable as those that bought $20k thinking it was the bottom sold and stops and liqs started to hit cascading the price lower and ever lower, ultimately bottoming just below $18k. Now Dash just the week prior dropped to $38 at the low on the back of the Celsius liquidation and Bitcoin was at $21k at that time. So, you would have expected that as Bitcoin broke down below $20k all hell would have broken out in Dash and we've made new lows? Well spoiler, Dash did something different and held the line!

So, in order to hold the line the BTC ratio started to soar. Now, let's not get mixed up here, I am not saying that Bitcoin was being used to buy Dash, no. I am saying that dollars were being used to buy Dash at a historic low (Deep Value) and all that buy demand forced the ratio to go up, it had to give.

This was a change in behaviour for Dash that made me sit up and take notice and I think there is a very good chance that in dollar terms the low is in for Dash, or worst case we might dip just a smidge lower, eg $35 or so, but that's really nominal.

I think this redditor puts it more eloquently than I can.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/vfbj5e

The people still in Dash are mostly, old, angry crusty individuals that didn't sell at $1600, nor $40, nor $400 and again nor $40. So, you can see there is a large amount of supply that simply ain't budging and that means price will go up from here. The bottom is in.

 

[qwizzie]

Latest BTC/USD Chart (30d, Bitstamp)

Latest DASH/USD Chart (30d, Poloniex)

Latest DASH/BTC Chart (30d, Poloniex)

 

[GrandMasterDash]

Seems we were too optimistic.

Today the BTC-DASH ratio hit 1:500 for the first time. For a few months the ratio kept hovering around 1:470. The fall to 1:500 is very recent and may be related to the discussions of HPMNs. A while back, @xkcd said, one day, a bitcoin might buy one masternode. I chose to accept this possibility and it seems we are on track to achieve it.

 

[qwizzie]

I may as well do a new month, new monthly charts thing today. Keep in mind that a new Fed interest rate hike will be announced today in the US, which will most likely negatively impact Bitcoin (and Altcoins) price in the short term.

Latest BTC/USD Chart (30d, Bitstamp)

Latest DASH/USD Chart (30d, Poloniex)

Latest DASH/BTC Chart (30d, Poloniex)

A part of me is still waiting on a last and final leg down for Bitcoin price (towards 14K, possibly lower), dragging Altcoins prices down with it.
We will see if that materialize or not.

I suspect for Bitcoin it is either a last leg down or a long time (3-6 months) further moving sideways.

 

[qwizzie]

Looks like the final leg down is upon us after all. Bitcoin price dropped to $17,500 today (-11.6%) and Dash price dropped to $34,26 (-17.8%).
Question remains : how low will it ultimately go ?

https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-bloodbath-bear-market-lows-btcusd/

BTC/USD, 3D, Coinbase Pro

Source : https://cryptowat.ch/charts/COINBASE-PRO:BTC-USD?period=3d

BTC/USD, 1M, Bitstamp

Source : tradingview

DASH/USDT, 3D, Binance

Source : https://cryptowat.ch/charts/BINANCE:DASH-USDT?period=3d

DASH/USD, 1M, Poloniex

Source : tradingview

 

[xkcd]

Bottom is in.

 

[qwizzie]

This last leg down of Bitcoin price is starting to look impressive :

BTC/USD, 12H,Coinbase Pro

DASH/USDT, 12H, Binance

Never a dull day (or days) in crypto...

 

[qwizzie]

Here is a personal overview of some Altcoins, selected on % down from ATH. More and more altcoins are now more then 90% down from ATH.

Looks like the market is close to finishing a complete re-evaluation of Altcoins and Bitcoin.
Bitcoin marketcap dominance is also taking a dive according coinmarketcap (currently at 38.2%)

 

[xkcd]

OK, bottom was not in, pity, but value is there and people are snapping up coins. Dash is the first DeFi, this could be a good chance to get your hands on a high performance node.

 

[GrandMasterDash]

I dunno if the recent silkroad seizure is priced in and, besides, one more disaster and bitcoin goes to 10K. Good time to buy but keep some back.

 

[xkcd]

Tremendous short squeeze in play now, good sign the bottom is in if we swiftly refuse this level and return closer to $40.

 

[qwizzie]

DASH/USD, Monthly chart, Poloniex

Source : tradingview

and so it begins for Dash ...

DASH/BTC, Monthly chart, Poloniex

Source : tradingview

Dash getting closer to flipping to the positive side with regards Awesome Oscillator (AO), but not there yet.

BTC/USD, Monthly chart, Bitstamp

Source : tradingview

Bitcoin need more time, is most likely now behind in its cycle compared to certain Altcoins (like Dash).

 

[GrandMasterDash]

Since the HPMN discussion was started (September/October), the MN count has been on an uptrend.

a) do you think this is coincidence?
b) would that increase be the cause of this pump?

I have no idea.

 

[xkcd]

Since the HPMN discussion was started (September/October), the MN count has been on an uptrend.

a) do you think this is coincidence?
b) would that increase be the cause of this pump?

I have no idea.

The current understanding is two-fold.

1. Clarity around how Platform will be launched gives confidence in the coin.
2. Evolution was not priced in the coin, it was assumed it would never launch.
   DCG appear to be ready to deliver however, this has blindsided the market.
3. MNOs with 3 nodes are buying a few extra Dash to make up 4k for a HPMN.
   MNOs with 7 nodes are accumulating extra Dash for 2 HPMNs.
4. Seasonally, this is the strongest time of year for Dash through to April.

I guess it was four-fold.

 

[GrandMasterDash]

Though I wouldn't call this Evolution at all, more like the start of the end. We were all deceived. In theory, DCG should be the ones to fork, but in practice they will steal the dash brand and all it's users.

 

[xkcd]

Though I wouldn't call this Evolution at all, more like the start of the end. We were all deceived. In theory, DCG should be the ones to fork, but in practice they will steal the dash brand and all it's users.

I don't think it is quite that bad. Here is how I see it. Running Evo on every node would be very expensive in hosting for the entire network and not add much in the way of decentralisation to the network, in fact the L1 nimble layer could get bogged down with the overhead of the Evolution beast. The L1 chain secures 11 million Dash, but Evo will hold on average something like 30K Dash equivalent in the form of credits 1000:1 to convertible to Dash. If the number of nodes required to secure the chain is anything to go by then it would stand to reason that we employ fewer nodes to service the Evolution L2, wouldn't you agree?

 

[GrandMasterDash]

I think you are saying the MN network is already oversubscribed and thus can afford to give up some nodes and shift some of their rewards to HPMNs to cover costs. I disagree. Hosting costs are in dollars and we wouldn't be discussing this if dash was $1500, then we'd all just go bare metal.

So, the question is, how sustainable and how scalable is this? More so while Sam is arguing that low fees - less income - is essential to be competitive against a product without compare. My fear is, like all tax systems, DCG will justify more rewards / votes to keep us "secure".

How to launch Platform securely is the crux of Sam's argument and his only explanation for scaling is sharding, which IIRC he said could take a couple of years, plus other more important things to do in the meantime. At the end of those two years, what incentive would there be to reverse the elitist HPMNs? - none that I see. They have built a product and roadmap to make work for works sake and there are plenty more opportunities to keep this scam going, sucking the life out of basic pleb MNs.

Sorry, I realize I went off-topic but it does all come back to the price of dash.

 

[qwizzie]

Looking at the monthly longterm chart, it looks like Dash price has found its bottom at $30 and is now comfortably moving upwards.
Awesome Oscillator (AO) has also printed its second green bar, and both MACD and RSI are potentially signaling the end of the longterm
downtrend of the Dash price and possibly the start of a new longterm uptrend of the Dash price. I am currently just waiting on a new green
crossover dot to get visible on the monthly MACD indicator, to further confirm a bullish trend.

This could still take many months to fully play out, but i am slowly starting to feel :