Dash Holders - huge "changing of the guard"

T

toknormal

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Watching the Dash/BTC markets the last week, specially with the recent drop to the 0.018 "arena", I've rarely seen the trades so busy (watching in realtime as opposed to just observing volume statistics).

There is quite intense trading at this level - chunky trades in both directions and lots of them every few minutes. Another thing I notice is the amount of off-book orders hovering. A meagre 160 Dash sellwall gets eaten and instantly 800 Dash worth of bids come online right at the top of the bid stack.

It seems there is a changing of the guard in progress (or at the very least some of the more concentrated Dash holdings are being liberated out of some of the stronger hands at last).

There is going to be a whole new community of holders at the end of this. Who are they ? What are they expecting from Dash ? They must number in the thousands if not tens of thousands - it's an unseen iceberg at the moment.

Active addresses seems to have started rising again. It hit a low point in September/October and now looks to have added around 10,000 to the average or so.

Market RSI is also staying (just) above the maximum oversold level it hit back in August, even with that dip back to the 0.017 range we recently took. The Dash/BTC market is significant because we need to decouple from BTC there to stabilise I think. But there are signs of the selling now being met with some enthusiastic buying.
 
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Archetypes are at the core of all this. They are more important than anything else in terms of who will survive and who won't and there are only very few of them to be had - maybe 3 or 4 core, commodity-based monetary archetypes.

To succeed, a synthetic version of a real world asset needs 2 things IMO:
  • to identify one of those archetypes and be the first into the space (in order to qualify for the "Mona Lisa" type originality value)
  • to avail itself of sufficient technical latitude that lets it implement the primary features of the archetype with high fidelity
This is why the Bitcoin forks are more or less screwed on both counts with regards to calling themselves "cash". Being in-flight forks of bitcoin, they are limited to "tweaking" or "hacking" its fundamental configuration parameters. A bit like an Ocean Liner trying to call itself a speedboat by increasing the engine size. They still are and always will be bitcoin - doesn't matter how you fork it. An electronic, store of value monetary commodity. Not "cash".

The "cash" archetype has 4 significant, characterising features:
  1. it's instant
  2. transactions always use the base (on chain) money supply, even in the smallest exchanges - never account based trading
  3. its coin-level fungibility is supported by continuous network level recycling (via consolidations in merchant till drawers and bank deposits)
  4. in the authentic (non-fiat) case of the gold coin, it serves as a store of value at small scales as well as large scales. (i.e. the cash in your pocket should retain its value over decades. You shouldn't have to convert it to equities, bonds or other commodities if you're not using it)
The problem for Bitcoin and its "in-flight" forks should become obvious from only these observations. No aspect of the protocol works in realtime except for the network inputs. Any response can only come from a single, isolated server since the network only reponds coherently to requests in blocktime, not realtime. Any bitcoin (in-flight) fork can therefore only ever be a low-fidelity implementation of the "cash" archetype.

To do a high-fidelty synthetic implementation, 3 critical blockchain elements are required:
  • a decoupled protocol that supports the mining (blocktime) priorities independently of the network service priorities
  • masternodes (without which, 1 is not possible)
  • pure currency, mined coin (to satisfy requirement 4 above)
That kind of narrows things down a bit.
 
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toknormal said:
Watching the Dash/BTC markets the last week, specially with the recent drop to the 0.018 "arena", I've rarely seen the trades so busy (watching in realtime as opposed to just observing volume statistics).

There is quite intense trading at this level - chunky trades in both directions and lots of them every few minutes. Another thing I notice is the amount of off-book orders hovering. A meagre 160 Dash sellwall gets eaten and instantly 800 Dash worth of bids come online right at the top of the bid stack.

It seems there is a changing of the guard in progress (or at the very least some of the more concentrated Dash holdings are being liberated out of some of the stronger hands at last).

There is going to be a whole new community of holders at the end of this. Who are they ? What are they expecting from Dash ? They must number in the thousands if not tens of thousands - it's an unseen iceberg at the moment.

Active addresses seems to have started rising again. It hit a low point in September/October and now looks to have added around 10,000 to the average or so.

Market RSI is also staying (just) above the maximum oversold level it hit back in August, even with that dip back to the 0.017 range we recently took. The Dash/BTC market is significant because we need to decouple from BTC there to stabilise I think. But there are signs of the selling now being met with some enthusiastic buying.
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I take it as a warning when the old guard hodlers show up to say these baseless optimism things...

Who? Where? There must be .. of them.

If you can count it so easily, it's morbidly insufficient.

If the rest of 2018 didn't shake loose the weak hands, what's going on now that's suddenly so profound?

Aye, the most profound thing of all; nothing. Nothing is what's going on...

DASH has let so many golden opportunities pass them by... The words we get from them serve as proof of amateur minds that simply don't get it. Post Turtles. Albeit, Post Turtles making the best go of it they know how, working very hard... But still, Post Turtles... I refer back to the Autistic Pickup Artist.
 
It isn't "baseless optimism". It's an unambiguous observation of a market indicator that comes around once every 2-3 years or so.

Unfortunately, raw cynicism is a poor substitute for well reasoned argument. Nor does it qualify you for a monopoly on realism - in fact probably the reverse. So maybe you'd expand on these "golden opportunities" that are not/were not being "capitalised on" so that they may be as open to scrutiny as our "baseless optimism" ;)
 
toknormal said:
It isn't "baseless optimism". It's an unambiguous observation of a market indicator that comes around once every 2-3 years or so.

Unfortunately, raw cynicism is a poor substitute for well reasoned argument. Nor does it qualify you for a monopoly on realism - in fact probably the reverse. So maybe you'd expand on these "golden opportunities" that are not/were not being "capitalised on" so that they may be as open to scrutiny as our "baseless optimism" ;)
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Without getting distracted by your bait; the fundamentals have changed.

The basis has shifted from "Who's it gonna be" to "Who's actually doing something?"

Whatever chart you're looking at, it doesn't apply anymore; if it ever applied.

I'd love for you to be right, but my cynicism is well reasoned (even if that reasoning has not been presented for the umpteenth time, it's a major waste of my time since it will simply be ignored by socialist snowflakes anyway), and your optimism is based on Ouija Boards Past that don't have anything to do with Ouija Boards Present and Future.

It's strange how so many people can say that crypto is evolving, yet fail to acknowledge that means it's becoming a different thing.

Your charts for Horse Sales in Eastern Australia in 1997 have no bearing on the Ice Cream Overstock Shrinkage in Saudi Arabia in 1983.

Crypto is showing an epoch mark where evolution moves at the speed of punctuated equilibrium. A major focus shift.

What was is not what is or will be. The focus shift is so dramatic that all the data points collected no longer apply.

Reality metrics apply now, not pie-in-the-sky hype.

Everything that drove those past data points is gone.

We've entered the stage of "put up or shut up" for the market at large.

A stage DASH could have entered alone 4 years ago without a competitor in sight, but didn't.
 
camosoul said:
We've entered the stage of "put up or shut up" for the market at large.

A stage DASH could have entered alone 4 years ago without a competitor in sight, but didn't.
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It could be that I'm not aware of some "water under the bridge" politics. All I know is that you created a vending machine to demonstrate InstantSend. I can't remember all the debate that came after that or what the "missed opportunities" were but I remember there was some tension between yourself, "solarminer" and the community.

Ah, this....https://www.dash.org/forum/threads/budget-proposal-vendor-experience-updated.7863/
 
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