A
question came up on Telegram and I'll put the answer here for better visibility:
"Thanks! I read yours. It tells about your background and relevant credentials but not what direction you would want the DIF to take; what kind of investments you would push for and the like."
Good question. The profile sections were given by Dash Watch and didn't get into goals and intentions. But of course that's important in any election.
I could answer with a one-liner - transactions! - but to address the "and the like" part and give a better picture to everyone wondering how I'm wired, let me digress a bit.
I often read comments like "Dash is hugely undervalued!" I understand people are unhappy with the price (so am I!), but - gasp! - I disagree with that statement.
To determine if something is undervalued, we first have to define what value is. Value investing is actually a common investment strategy. It means identifying investment targets that are undervalued and then holding them longterm. Sounds familiar? But value here is defined by fundamentals - clearly measurable indicators such as revenue, profit, cash flow, assets, expense ratios etc. Dash doesn't have any of that. How could it? It's not a company stock, after all.
But if we can't clearly measure value, we can hardly claim that something is under or overvalued. Some might argue that Dash is priced based on potential, expectations of future usefulness. I also call that hopium. At the end of the day, that's pretty much the definition of speculation. A long way from value. Prices based on speculation swing wildly up and down, depending on how strong the hopium is that day and on herd mentality, things like FOMO, with nothing dampening those swings or providing some guard rails for where the price truly should be. And at the whims of nothing but speculation, Dash, like other cryptos, is priced exactly where the speculators see it. Which means it's priced exactly right, at the equilibrium of supply and demand.
Not a very satisfying situation. But how can we change it? What could provide actual value for Dash?
To me, the answer is very clear: Widespread economic use. Unlike BTC-maximalists today, who have gone through a remarkable transformation from
championing P2P electronic cash to exclusively promoting digital gold and store of value, I see no reason why a cryptocurrency couldn't be both. Facilitating easy, fast, cheap transactions has value. A medium of exchange is a valuable service, just look at Paypal. That service puts a floor in the value of the currency itself and that floor will rise the more the currency is being used, making it a great store of value as well.
My economics classes are a few years past by now, but I believe this is supported by the Quantity Theory of Money, one of the central building blocks of economics. It has its fair share of criticism, but it works for our purposes.
The Equation of Exchange at the heart of the theory says:
M x V = P x Q
M = Money supply
V = Velocity of money
P = Price level
Q = Quantity of all goods bought and sold, sometimes actually also labeled T for aggregate transactions.
Outside of crypto, lots of discussions revolve around the implications for M and how it can or should be used to regulate P (inflation) or stimulate Q (GDP). But in a fixed-supply crypto like Dash, M is fixed. Velocity means how frequently the same coin is used to pay for something in a given time. Hodling drives V down, rapid spending drives it up. But especially as long as crypto coexists with fiat currencies, there's an upper limit on velocity. Most merchants immediately exchange to fiat to pay their own bills and most people have to acquire crypto through exchanges, slowing down the roundtrip before the same coin can be spent again.
That leaves P and Q to keep the equation balanced. And clearly, the more transaction volume (Q up), the more price P will come down. Hooray!
Hold on, you say, wait a minute! We want price to go up, not down, you idiot!!
Sure, but you're thinking of the price of Dash expressed in fiat currency. This equation reflects the price of goods and services expressed in Dash. The relation is exactly reverse. The lower the prices of goods in Dash, the more you can buy with one Dash, the more valuable is Dash.
An example to illustrate, which I
shamelessly lifted from my Reddit history: Currently, there are around 10m Dash in circulation. Actually, let's say 5m because the other half is locked up in Masternodes. For easier math, let's say the price is US$ 100/Dash.
Suppose Acme sells widget for $100 in fiat and accepts Dash, so widget costs 1 Dash. Widget is popular. 5 million people across the world want to buy it per day. They buy up the entire supply of free Dash, pay for the widget and Acme converts back to fiat the same day. Price overall didn't move.
Now widget gets even more popular. 10m people want to buy one, new competitors spring up who make them. But there simply aren't enough Dash to go around to let everyone have 1 whole Dash. The most everyone can have is 0.5 Dash. Acme and the competitors still want to sell widgets. No problem. Widget's Dash price adjusts down to 0.5 and 10 million widgets are sold and converted to fiat as before.
Now half a Dash buys a $100-widget, i.e the price is now $200/Dash.
The beauty of this is, that this is MUCH more sustainable than speculation-based valuation. Instead of the moods and whims of fickle speculators, this is based on real economic activity, which fluctuates much less.
Some people may actually prefer the whiplash of roller coaster markets, since you can make a fortune if you're lucky. (Or lose your last shirt if you're not.) But I think that's poison for large-scale mainstream adoption. I want to see a functioning, widely used P2P digital cash and I know the coin which makes that race has a huge sustainable upside in value that should make every hodler happy. I want Dash to be that coin.
So that should make it very clear what I would aim for as DIF supervisor: transactions, transactions, transactions. Not simply blockchain transactions - moving Dash back and forth between exchanges or your desktop and mobile wallets. I mean transactions that represent real economic activity measured both in number and value.
I will favor investments in companies that align with this goal. Craypay is a good example, even though I have some reservations about the gift card detour concept. Of course, the DIF is not a charity, so the prospects for good ROI are important too. We're not going to hand out money just for transactions alone. Good team, good track record, good product-market fit - all count.